Nyasa Big Bullets 7–0 Songwe Border United

Nyasa Big Bullets

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Songwe Border United

4/20/2025

Super League · Round 3Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nyasa Big Bullets84%

×Draw12%

Songwe Border United4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nyasa Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchSongwe Border United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.43

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.63

Songwe Border United

0.43

Nyasa Big Bullets creates 512% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

2.33

creates per match

0.13

0.74

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

2.33

Songwe Border United

0.13

allows per match

Nyasa Big Bullets

0.74

Songwe Border United

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nyasa Big Bullets+0.00on par

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyasa Big Bullets ↓

Songwe Border United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nyasa Big Bullets or draw

96%

Nyasa Big Bullets or Songwe Border United

88%

Draw or Songwe Border United

16%

Winning margin

Nyasa Big Bullets wins by 2+

63%

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Nyasa Big Bullets 1+ goals

93%

Nyasa Big Bullets 2+ goals

73%

Nyasa Big Bullets 3+ goals

48%

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

35%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

7%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Nyasa Big Bullets (draw refunded)

95%

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyasa Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyasa Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.63

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Nyasa Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Nyasa Big Bullets scores more

84%

level

12%

Songwe Border United scores more

4%

Nyasa Big Bullets at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Nyasa Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff