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Songwe Border United vs Moyale Barracks — Super League 2026

Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United25%
×Draw26%
Moyale Barracks49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songwe Border United
1.02
Moyale Barracks
1.53

Moyale Barracks creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Songwe Border United
0.53
Moyale Barracks
0.86

allows per match

Songwe Border United
2.20
Moyale Barracks
1.50

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par
Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

Moyale Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw
51%
Songwe Border United or Moyale Barracks
74%
Draw or Moyale Barracks
75%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+
9%
Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals
64%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
27%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
8%
Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
78%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
45%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
34%
Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Songwe Border United scores more
25%
level
26%
Moyale Barracks scores more
49%

Moyale Barracks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Songwe Border United 0–1 Moyale Barracks

Moyale Barracks beat Songwe Border United 1-0 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.