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Moyale Barracks vs Songwe Border United — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
11/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Moyale Barracks77%
×Draw17%
Songwe Border United6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
2.08
Songwe Border United
0.41

Moyale Barracks creates 407% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Songwe Border United
0.13

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Songwe Border United
2.93

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Songwe Border United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
94%
Moyale Barracks or Songwe Border United
83%
Draw or Songwe Border United
23%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
51%
Songwe Border United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
87%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
61%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
34%
Songwe Border United 1+ goals
34%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
6%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
93%
Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
77%
level
17%
Songwe Border United scores more
6%

Moyale Barracks at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moyale Barracks vs Songwe Border United

Moyale Barracks beat Songwe Border United 1-0 in Super League on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.