Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Songwe Border United vs MAFCO — Super League 2026

Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
MAFCO
MAFCO
7/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United22%
×Draw25%
MAFCO52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songwe Border United
0.92
MAFCO
1.56

MAFCO creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 80 away

creates per match

Songwe Border United
0.53
MAFCO
0.91

allows per match

Songwe Border United
2.20
MAFCO
1.31

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par
MAFCO+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

MAFCO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw
48%
Songwe Border United or MAFCO
75%
Draw or MAFCO
78%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+
8%
MAFCO wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals
60%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
23%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
7%
MAFCO 1+ goals
79%
MAFCO 2+ goals
46%
MAFCO 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
30%
MAFCO (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

MAFCO away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + MAFCO defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.92

MAFCO attack 0.91 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Songwe Border United scores more
22%
level
25%
MAFCO scores more
52%

MAFCO at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Songwe Border United 1–3 MAFCO

MAFCO beat Songwe Border United 3-1 in Super League on July 27, 2025.