MAFCO 2–0 Songwe Border United: Result & Stats

MAFCO

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Songwe Border United

12/3/2025

Super League · Round 17Chitowe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MAFCO74%

×Draw18%

Songwe Border United8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MAFCOExpected goals in this matchSongwe Border United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.51

MAFCO

2.09

Songwe Border United

0.51

MAFCO creates 310% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

1.25

creates per match

0.13

0.89

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

MAFCO

1.25

Songwe Border United

0.13

allows per match

MAFCO

0.89

Songwe Border United

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MAFCO+0.00on par

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MAFCO ↓

Songwe Border United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

MAFCO or draw

92%

MAFCO or Songwe Border United

82%

Draw or Songwe Border United

26%

Winning margin

MAFCO wins by 2+

49%

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

MAFCO 1+ goals

88%

MAFCO 2+ goals

62%

MAFCO 3+ goals

34%

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

40%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

9%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

MAFCO (draw refunded)

90%

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MAFCO at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 79 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MAFCO attack 1.25 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.09

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + MAFCO defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

MAFCO scores more

74%

level

18%

Songwe Border United scores more

8%

MAFCO at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "MAFCO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff