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Songwe Border United vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
7/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United19%
×Draw25%
Kamuzu Barracks56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Songwe Border United
0.82
Kamuzu Barracks
1.60

Kamuzu Barracks creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Songwe Border United
0.53
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Songwe Border United
2.20
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw
44%
Songwe Border United or Kamuzu Barracks
75%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
81%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+
6%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals
56%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
20%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
5%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
80%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
47%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
26%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Songwe Border United scores more
19%
level
25%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
56%

Kamuzu Barracks at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Songwe Border United vs Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat Songwe Border United 3-1 in Super League on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.