Kamuzu Barracks 1–0 Songwe Border United

Kamuzu Barracks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Songwe Border United

8/23/2025

Super League · Round 18Champion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks74%

×Draw18%

Songwe Border United7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kamuzu BarracksExpected goals in this matchSongwe Border United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.45

Kamuzu Barracks

2.00

Songwe Border United

0.45

Kamuzu Barracks creates 344% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

0.13

0.77

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks

1.07

Songwe Border United

0.13

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks

0.77

Songwe Border United

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Songwe Border United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw

93%

Kamuzu Barracks or Songwe Border United

82%

Draw or Songwe Border United

26%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

48%

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

86%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

59%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

32%

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

36%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

8%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

91%

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

74%

level

18%

Songwe Border United scores more

7%

Kamuzu Barracks at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff