Songwe Border United 0–3 Ekwendeni Hammers

Songwe Border United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ekwendeni Hammers

11/19/2025

Super League · Round 24Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United26%

×Draw25%

Ekwendeni Hammers49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Songwe Border UnitedExpected goals in this matchEkwendeni Hammers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.56

Songwe Border United

1.05

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.56

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

0.53

creates per match

0.91

2.20

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Songwe Border United

0.53

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.91

allows per match

Songwe Border United

2.20

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw

51%

Songwe Border United or Ekwendeni Hammers

75%

Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers

74%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

10%

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

65%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

28%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

9%

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

79%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

46%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

34%

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.91 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Songwe Border United scores more

26%

level

25%

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

49%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff