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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Songwe Border United — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Songwe Border United
Songwe Border United
5/11/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers73%
×Draw19%
Songwe Border United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
2.02
Songwe Border United
0.50

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 304% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Songwe Border United
0.13

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Songwe Border United
2.93

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Songwe Border United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
92%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Songwe Border United
81%
Draw or Songwe Border United
27%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
47%
Songwe Border United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
87%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
60%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
33%
Songwe Border United 1+ goals
39%
Songwe Border United 2+ goals
9%
Songwe Border United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
90%
Songwe Border United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
73%
level
19%
Songwe Border United scores more
8%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ekwendeni Hammers vs Songwe Border United

Ekwendeni Hammers and Songwe Border United drew 1-1 in Super League on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.