Songwe Border United 1–0 Chitipa United

Songwe Border United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chitipa United

10/15/2025

Super League · Round 16Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Songwe Border United29%

×Draw27%

Chitipa United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Songwe Border UnitedExpected goals in this matchChitipa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.34

Songwe Border United

1.04

Chitipa United

1.34

Chitipa United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 65 away

0.53

creates per match

0.48

2.20

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Songwe Border United

0.53

Chitipa United

0.48

allows per match

Songwe Border United

2.20

Chitipa United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songwe Border United+0.00on par

Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songwe Border United ↓

Chitipa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Songwe Border United or draw

56%

Songwe Border United or Chitipa United

73%

Draw or Chitipa United

71%

Winning margin

Songwe Border United wins by 2+

11%

Chitipa United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Songwe Border United 1+ goals

65%

Songwe Border United 2+ goals

28%

Songwe Border United 3+ goals

9%

Chitipa United 1+ goals

74%

Chitipa United 2+ goals

39%

Chitipa United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Songwe Border United (draw refunded)

40%

Chitipa United (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songwe Border United at home — creates 0.53, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songwe Border United attack 0.53 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Songwe Border United defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Songwe Border United scores more

29%

level

27%

Chitipa United scores more

44%

Chitipa United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff