Chitipa United vs Songwe Border United — Super League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Chitipa United75%
Songwe Border United8%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chitipa United creates 310% more chances
Season form · 67 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chitipa United ↓
Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chitipa United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches
Songwe Border United away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chitipa United attack 1.33 + Songwe Border United defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.13
Songwe Border United attack 0.13 + Chitipa United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 75%?"
Chitipa United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 75% does not mean "Chitipa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Be Forward Wanderers
Nyasa Big Bullets
Kamuzu Barracks
Silver Strikers
Adelaide Blue Eagles
TN Stars
Civil Sporting
Mighty Tigers
Mzuni
Karonga United
Moyale BarracksChitipa United
Ntopwa
Masters Security
Mlatho Mponela
Dwangwa UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chitipa United host Songwe Border United on Wednesday, 25 June 2025 at 12:30. The match is part of the Super League 2026/2027 season.
Super League: Chitipa United 4–0 Songwe Border United
Chitipa United beat Songwe Border United 4-0 in Super League on June 25, 2025.
The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.