Songo 2–4 Platinum: Result & Stats

Songo

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Platinum

9/28/2019

CAF Champions League · 1st RoundEstádio do Ferroviário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Songo43%

×Draw28%

Platinum30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SongoExpected goals in this matchPlatinum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.04

Songo

1.31

Platinum

1.04

Songo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Songo

1.00

Platinum

0.88

allows per match

Songo

1.20

Platinum

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songo+0.00on par

Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songo ↓

Platinum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Songo or draw

70%

Songo or Platinum

72%

Draw or Platinum

57%

Winning margin

Songo wins by 2+

20%

Platinum wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Songo 1+ goals

73%

Songo 2+ goals

38%

Songo 3+ goals

14%

Platinum 1+ goals

65%

Platinum 2+ goals

28%

Platinum 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Songo (draw refunded)

59%

Platinum (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Platinum away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songo attack 1.00 + Platinum defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Platinum attack 0.88 + Songo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Songo scores more

43%

level

28%

Platinum scores more

30%

Songo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Songo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff