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Platinum vs Songo — CAF Champions League 2019

Platinum
Platinum
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Songo
Songo
9/14/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundBarbourfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Platinum47%
×Draw29%
Songo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platinum
1.27
Songo
0.80

Platinum creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Platinum
1.14
Songo
0.60

allows per match

Platinum
1.00
Songo
1.40

finishing

Platinum+0.00on par
Songo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platinum ↓

Songo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Platinum or draw
77%
Platinum or Songo
71%
Draw or Songo
53%

Winning margin

Platinum wins by 2+
22%
Songo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Platinum 1+ goals
72%
Platinum 2+ goals
36%
Platinum 3+ goals
14%
Songo 1+ goals
55%
Songo 2+ goals
19%
Songo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Platinum (draw refunded)
67%
Songo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platinum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Songo away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platinum attack 1.14 + Songo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Songo attack 0.60 + Platinum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Platinum scores more
47%
level
29%
Songo scores more
23%

Platinum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Platinum 1–0 Songo

Platinum beat Songo 1-0 in CAF Champions League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Barbourfields Stadium in Bulawayo.