Songkhla 2–1 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Songkhla

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kasetsart FC

11/8/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 12Tinsulanonda Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Songkhla59%

×Draw24%

Kasetsart FC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SongkhlaExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.79

Songkhla

1.69

Kasetsart FC

0.79

Songkhla creates 114% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

1.53

creates per match

0.88

0.71

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Songkhla

1.53

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Songkhla

0.71

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Songkhla+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Songkhla ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Songkhla or draw

83%

Songkhla or Kasetsart FC

76%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

41%

Winning margin

Songkhla wins by 2+

33%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Songkhla 1+ goals

82%

Songkhla 2+ goals

50%

Songkhla 3+ goals

24%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

55%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

19%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Songkhla (draw refunded)

77%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Songkhla at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Songkhla attack 1.53 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Songkhla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Songkhla scores more

59%

level

24%

Kasetsart FC scores more

17%

Songkhla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Songkhla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff