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Kasetsart FC vs Songkhla — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Songkhla
Songkhla
3/4/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 28Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kasetsart FC54%
×Draw24%
Songkhla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.66
Songkhla
0.93

Kasetsart FC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Songkhla
0.65

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Songkhla
2.00

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Songkhla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Songkhla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
79%
Kasetsart FC or Songkhla
76%
Draw or Songkhla
46%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
30%
Songkhla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
81%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
49%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
23%
Songkhla 1+ goals
61%
Songkhla 2+ goals
24%
Songkhla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
72%
Songkhla (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Songkhla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Songkhla defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Songkhla attack 0.65 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Songkhla scores more
21%

Kasetsart FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–1 Songkhla

Kasetsart FC and Songkhla drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on March 4, 2026.

The match was played at Insee Chantarasatit Stadium.