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Song Lam Nghe An vs Sai Gon — V.League 1 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sai Gon
Sai Gon
10/18/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 20Sân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An48%
×Draw26%
Sai Gon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.50
Sai Gon
1.03

Song Lam Nghe An creates 46% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 42 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.15
Sai Gon
1.12

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.93
Sai Gon
1.86

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Sai Gon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
74%
Song Lam Nghe An or Sai Gon
74%
Draw or Sai Gon
52%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
24%
Sai Gon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
78%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
44%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
19%
Sai Gon 1+ goals
64%
Sai Gon 2+ goals
28%
Sai Gon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
65%
Sai Gon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
48%
level
26%
Sai Gon scores more
26%

Song Lam Nghe An at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Song Lam Nghe An 1–2 Sai Gon

Sai Gon beat Song Lam Nghe An 2-1 in V.League 1 on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.