Sai Gon 0–0 Song Lam Nghe An: Result & Stats

Sai Gon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Song Lam Nghe An

3/8/2020

V.League 1 · Round 1Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sai Gon49%

×Draw27%

Song Lam Nghe An24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sai GonExpected goals in this matchSong Lam Nghe An

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.92

Sai Gon

1.43

Song Lam Nghe An

0.92

Sai Gon creates 55% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 88 away

1.30

creates per match

0.90

0.93

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sai Gon

1.30

Song Lam Nghe An

0.90

allows per match

Sai Gon

0.93

Song Lam Nghe An

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sai Gon ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sai Gon or draw

76%

Sai Gon or Song Lam Nghe An

73%

Draw or Song Lam Nghe An

51%

Winning margin

Sai Gon wins by 2+

24%

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals

76%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

42%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

17%

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals

60%

Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals

23%

Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

67%

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sai Gon at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 40 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sai Gon attack 1.30 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Sai Gon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sai Gon scores more

49%

level

27%

Song Lam Nghe An scores more

24%

Sai Gon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff