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Song Lam Nghe An vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Cup 2018

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2/28/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Sân vận động Vinh (Vinh Stadium) (Vinh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An76%
×Draw21%
Johor Darul Takzim FC3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.67
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.17

Song Lam Nghe An creates 882% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.33
Johor Darul Takzim FC
0.00

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.33
Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.00

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

87%No
  • No87
  • Yes13

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–13%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–027%
1–15%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–022%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (27%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
97%
Song Lam Nghe An or Johor Darul Takzim FC
79%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
24%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
45%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
81%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
50%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
23%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
16%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
1%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
96%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.33 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 0.00 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
76%
level
21%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
3%

Song Lam Nghe An at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Song Lam Nghe An vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Song Lam Nghe An beat Johor Darul Takzim FC 2-0 in AFC Cup on February 28, 2018.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh (Vinh Stadium) (Vinh).