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Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Song Lam Nghe An — AFC Cup 2018

Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
4/24/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC56%
×Draw22%
Song Lam Nghe An22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.00
Song Lam Nghe An
1.17

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
2.67
Song Lam Nghe An
1.33

allows per match

Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.00
Song Lam Nghe An
1.33

finishing

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par
Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Johor Darul Takzim FC ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Johor Darul Takzim FC or draw
78%
Johor Darul Takzim FC or Song Lam Nghe An
78%
Draw or Song Lam Nghe An
44%

Winning margin

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
33%
Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
86%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
59%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
32%
Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
69%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
33%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
72%
Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Johor Darul Takzim FC at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 2.67 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.33 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
56%
level
22%
Song Lam Nghe An scores more
22%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3 – 2 Song Lam Nghe An

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Song Lam Nghe An 3-2 in AFC Cup on April 24, 2018.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium (Johor Bahru).