Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Song Lam Nghe An vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai — V.League 1 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe An
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
6/15/2025V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 25Sân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An46%
×Draw27%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.39
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
0.99

Song Lam Nghe An creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 91 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.15
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.05

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
0.93
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
1.62

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Hoang Anh Gia Lai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
73%
Song Lam Nghe An or Hoang Anh Gia Lai
73%
Draw or Hoang Anh Gia Lai
54%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
22%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
75%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
40%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
16%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals
63%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals
26%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
63%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.05 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
46%
level
27%
Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more
27%

Song Lam Nghe An at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Song Lam Nghe An 3–2 Hoang Anh Gia Lai

Song Lam Nghe An beat Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3-2 in V.League 1 on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.