Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2–0 Song Lam Nghe An

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Song Lam Nghe An

9/21/2024

V.League 1 · Round 2Sân vận động Plei Cu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai48%

×Draw26%

Song Lam Nghe An26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hoang Anh Gia LaiExpected goals in this matchSong Lam Nghe An

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.50

Song Lam Nghe An

1.03

Hoang Anh Gia Lai creates 46% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 88 away

1.45

creates per match

0.90

1.16

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.45

Song Lam Nghe An

0.90

allows per match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.16

Song Lam Nghe An

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoang Anh Gia Lai ↓

Song Lam Nghe An →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or draw

74%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai or Song Lam Nghe An

74%

Draw or Song Lam Nghe An

52%

Winning margin

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

24%

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

78%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

44%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

19%

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals

64%

Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals

28%

Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

65%

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

Song Lam Nghe An away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 1.45 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Song Lam Nghe An attack 0.90 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

48%

level

26%

Song Lam Nghe An scores more

26%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hoang Anh Gia Lai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff