Song Lam Nghe An 2–1 Binh Duong: Result & Stats

Song Lam Nghe An

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Binh Duong

R. Moore 69', 29'

Ngo Tung Quoc 45'

11/9/2025

V.League 1 · Round 11Vinh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An45%

×Draw28%

Binh Duong27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Song Lam Nghe AnExpected goals in this matchBinh Duong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Song Lam Nghe An

1.33

Binh Duong

0.97

Song Lam Nghe An creates 37% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

1.01

0.93

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An

1.15

Binh Duong

1.01

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An

0.93

Binh Duong

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Binh Duong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw

73%

Song Lam Nghe An or Binh Duong

72%

Draw or Binh Duong

55%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+

21%

Binh Duong wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals

74%

Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals

38%

Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals

15%

Binh Duong 1+ goals

62%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

25%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)

62%

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.15 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more

45%

level

28%

Binh Duong scores more

27%

Song Lam Nghe An at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

29'

R. Moore

42'

Nguyen Van Cong← Tran Minh Toan

42'

Phan Thanh Hau← Nguyen Thanh Kien

45'

Ngo Tung Quoc

55'

Doan Tuan Canh← Le Minh Binh

55'

Nguyen Van Anh← Nguyen Thanh Nhan

59'

Vuong Van Huy← Tran Manh Quynh

68'

Neneco← Ho Khac Ngoc

68'

X. B. Nguyen← Q. V. Nguyen

69'

R. Moore

75'

V. T. Phan← M. H. Nguyen

75'

L. V. Le Dinh← V. T. Le

75'

I. Origbaajo← U. Oduenyi

83'

Song

Binh

25

▼

Toan

2

⚽

Quoc

6

Alves

7

Cuong

9

▼

Binh

16

▼

17

21

24

33

▼

Kien

94

▼

Oduenyi

1

Binh

5

▼

Le

17

Tran

35

▼

Nguyen

30

Ho

19

Phan

16

▼

Nguyen

11

▼

Quynh

32

▼

Ngoc

7

Olaha

10

⚽2

Moore

Manager: Thuat Phan Nhu

59'▲Vuong Van Huy←▼Tran Manh Quynh

68'▲Neneco←▼Ho Khac Ngoc

68'▲X. B. Nguyen←▼Q. V. Nguyen

75'▲V. T. Phan←▼M. H. Nguyen

75'▲L. V. Le Dinh←▼V. T. Le

Song Lam Nghe An substitutes

26Nguyen55Hoang33Phan2Huy77Neneco8Nguyen18Dinh14Tuan21Dai

Manager: Duc Nguyen Anh

42'▲Nguyen Van Cong←▼Tran Minh Toan

42'▲Phan Thanh Hau←▼Nguyen Thanh Kien

55'▲Doan Tuan Canh←▼Le Minh Binh

55'▲Nguyen Van Anh←▼Nguyen Thanh Nhan

75'▲I. Origbaajo←▼U. Oduenyi

Binh Duong substitutes

19Canh30Cong8Hau28Anh39Kizito18Tai20Hung27Vu99Origbaajo