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Song Lam Nghe An vs Binh Duong — Cup 2019

Song Lam Nghe An
Song Lam Nghe Anadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
M. Olaha 90+1' (pen), 17'
V. C. Ho 79'
Jan 87'
Tran Duy Khanh 38'
6/26/2025CupCup · Semi-finalsSân vận động Vinh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Song Lam Nghe An39%
×Draw24%
Binh Duong37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Song Lam Nghe An
1.61
Binh Duong
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.67
Binh Duong
1.56

allows per match

Song Lam Nghe An
1.56
Binh Duong
1.56

finishing

Song Lam Nghe An+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Song Lam Nghe An ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Song Lam Nghe An or draw
63%
Song Lam Nghe An or Binh Duong
76%
Draw or Binh Duong
61%

Winning margin

Song Lam Nghe An wins by 2+
20%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Song Lam Nghe An 1+ goals
80%
Song Lam Nghe An 2+ goals
48%
Song Lam Nghe An 3+ goals
22%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
79%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
46%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Song Lam Nghe An (draw refunded)
51%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Song Lam Nghe An at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Song Lam Nghe An attack 1.67 + Binh Duong defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Binh Duong attack 1.56 + Song Lam Nghe An defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Song Lam Nghe An scores more
39%
level
24%
Binh Duong scores more
37%

Song Lam Nghe An at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Song Lam Nghe An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Olaha
38'
Tran Duy Khanh
59'
Nguyen Thanh Nhan
59'
Tran Manh Quynh← Tran Manh Quynh
63'
Tran Duy Khanh← Tran Duy Khanh
72'
Ha Duc Chinh← Nguyen Thanh Nhan
72'
Minh Trong Vo← Minh Trong Vo
79'
V. C. Ho
83'
Nguyen Hai Huy← Nguyen Hai Huy
83'
Tran Dinh Khuong← Tran Dinh Khuong
85'
B. Q. Phan
87'
B. Q. Phan← B. Q. Phan
87'
Ho Khac Ngoc← Ho Khac Ngoc
87'
Jan
88'
Jan
90'
Que Ngoc Hai
90+1'
M. OlahaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Song Lam Nghe An vs Binh Duong

Song Lam Nghe An beat Binh Duong 3-2 in Cup on June 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Olaha (17', 90+1' pen), Tran Duy Khanh (38'), V. C. Ho (79'), Jan (87').

The match was played at Sân vận động Vinh in Vinh.