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Soneja vs Castellón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Soneja
Soneja
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Castellón II
Castellón II
3/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Camp El Arco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Soneja41%
×Draw27%
Castellón II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soneja
1.33
Castellón II
1.12

Soneja creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Soneja
1.12
Castellón II
1.22

allows per match

Soneja
1.02
Castellón II
1.54

finishing

Soneja+0.00on par
Castellón II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soneja ↓

Castellón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Soneja or draw
69%
Soneja or Castellón II
73%
Draw or Castellón II
59%

Winning margin

Soneja wins by 2+
19%
Castellón II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Soneja 1+ goals
74%
Soneja 2+ goals
38%
Soneja 3+ goals
15%
Castellón II 1+ goals
67%
Castellón II 2+ goals
31%
Castellón II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Soneja (draw refunded)
57%
Castellón II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soneja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

Castellón II away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.54 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soneja attack 1.12 + Castellón II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Castellón II attack 1.22 + Soneja defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Soneja scores more
41%
level
27%
Castellón II scores more
31%

Soneja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Soneja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Soneja 1–5 Castellón II

Castellón II beat Soneja 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Camp El Arco in Soneja.