Castellón II 3–1 Soneja: Result & Stats

Castellón II

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Soneja

9/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 4Camp de futbol Javier Marquina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Castellón II45%

×Draw26%

Soneja29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Castellón IIExpected goals in this matchSoneja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.09

Castellón II

1.43

Soneja

1.09

Castellón II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.48

creates per match

1.02

1.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Castellón II

1.48

Soneja

1.02

allows per match

Castellón II

1.16

Soneja

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón II+0.00on par

Soneja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón II ↓

Soneja →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castellón II or draw

71%

Castellón II or Soneja

74%

Draw or Soneja

55%

Winning margin

Castellón II wins by 2+

22%

Soneja wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Castellón II 1+ goals

76%

Castellón II 2+ goals

42%

Castellón II 3+ goals

17%

Soneja 1+ goals

66%

Soneja 2+ goals

30%

Soneja 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castellón II (draw refunded)

61%

Soneja (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castellón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Soneja away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castellón II attack 1.48 + Soneja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Soneja attack 1.02 + Castellón II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castellón II scores more

45%

level

26%

Soneja scores more

29%

Castellón II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castellón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff