Sonderjyske 2–2 Odense: Result & Stats | Superliga

Sonderjyske

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Odense

E. Berggreen 53', 35'

J. Skjelvik 80'

M. Fenger 42'

4/10/2022

Superliga · Relegation Round - 2Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sonderjyske40%

×Draw24%

Odense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchOdense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.50

Sonderjyske

1.61

Odense

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.28

1.71

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.41

Odense

1.28

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.71

Odense

1.81

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.27scores more

Odense-0.06on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Odense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

64%

Sonderjyske or Odense

76%

Draw or Odense

60%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

20%

Odense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

80%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

48%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

22%

Odense 1+ goals

78%

Odense 2+ goals

44%

Odense 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

53%

Odense (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.71 · 22 matches

Odense away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.81 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.41 + Odense defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Odense attack 1.28 + Sonderjyske defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

40%

level

24%

Odense scores more

36%

Sonderjyske at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Berggreen

Sonderjyske · F

8.5

Match Events

5'

Aron Elis Thrándarson

24'

Nicholas Mickelson

35'

E. Berggreen↳ R. Hassan

42'

M. Fenger

53'

E. Berggreen

65'

M. Albæk← R. Hassan

65'

S. Svendsen← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

65'

E. Sabbi← J. Breum

76'

J. Skjelvik← J. King

77'

Peter Christiansen

78'

E. Frederiksen← E. Berggreen

79'

Duplexe Tchamba

80'

J. Skjelvik↳ E. Sabbi

88'

J. Gallegos← N. Thomsen

88'

I. Jensen← P. Christiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeOdense

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots13

3Corners5

14Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots13

3On Target4

9Off Target2

2Blocked7

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

333Total Passes453

230Accurate Passes347

69%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Superliga: Sonderjyske 2–2 Odense

Sonderjyske and Odense drew 2-2 in Superliga on April 10, 2022.

Goals: E. Berggreen (35', 53'), M. Fenger (42'), J. Skjelvik (80').

Odense controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sydbank Park in Haderslev.

Sonderjyske vs Odense — Superliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: Sonderjyske 2–2 Odense