Odense 1–1 Sonderjyske: Result & Stats | Superliga

Odense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sonderjyske

E. Sabbi 62' (pen)

E. Frederiksen 3'

5/15/2022

Superliga · Relegation Round - 9Nature Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Odense48%

×Draw23%

Sonderjyske29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OdenseExpected goals in this matchSonderjyske

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.35

Odense

1.78

Sonderjyske

1.35

Odense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.79

creates per match

1.37

1.34

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Odense

1.79

Sonderjyske

1.37

allows per match

Odense

1.34

Sonderjyske

1.77

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Odense-0.16scores less

Sonderjyske-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense ↓

Sonderjyske →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Odense or draw

71%

Odense or Sonderjyske

77%

Draw or Sonderjyske

52%

Winning margin

Odense wins by 2+

26%

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Odense 1+ goals

83%

Odense 2+ goals

53%

Odense 3+ goals

26%

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

74%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

39%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Odense (draw refunded)

62%

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 16 matches

Sonderjyske away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense attack 1.79 + Sonderjyske defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sonderjyske attack 1.37 + Odense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Odense scores more

48%

level

23%

Sonderjyske scores more

29%

Odense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Odense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Sabbi

Odense · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

E. Frederiksen

23'

Stefan Gartenmann

60'

Max FengerPenalty awarded

62'

E. SabbiPenalty

63'

I. Jensen← E. Frederiksen

69'

N. Thomsen← E. Kornvig

69'

R. Hassan← J. Gallegos

70'

S. Svendsen← T. Kløve

75'

Jørgen Skjelvik

84'

A. Taiwo← P. Christiansen

84'

R. Schouten← M. Albæk

87'

B. Kadrii← M. Fenger

87'

J. Breum← E. Sabbi

87'

A. Okosun← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

90+3'

J. Thomasen← J. Tverskov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OdenseSonderjyske

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots7

9Corners6

7Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots7

9On Target2

6Off Target2

4Blocked3

9Inside Box2

10Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

603Total Passes349

526Accurate Passes253

87%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3