Sonderjyske 1–1 Lyngby: Result & Stats | Superliga

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lyngby

T. Sommer 14'

F. Gytkjær 20'

7/26/2024

Superliga · Round 2Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sonderjyske43%

×Draw24%

Lyngby33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.42

Sonderjyske

1.66

Lyngby

1.42

Sonderjyske creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

1.60

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.60

Lyngby

1.23

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.60

Lyngby

1.71

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.34scores more

Lyngby-0.60scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

67%

Sonderjyske or Lyngby

76%

Draw or Lyngby

57%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

22%

Lyngby wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

81%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

49%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

23%

Lyngby 1+ goals

76%

Lyngby 2+ goals

41%

Lyngby 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

57%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 16 matches

Lyngby away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.60 + Lyngby defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lyngby attack 1.23 + Sonderjyske defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

43%

level

24%

Lyngby scores more

33%

Sonderjyske at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

T. Sommer

Sonderjyske · M

7.5

Match Events

14'

T. Sommer

20'

F. Gytkjær

31'

Dalton Wilkins

46'

W. Kumado← S. Magnússon

60'

A. Lyng← D. Wilkins

60'

M. Jensen← A. Bjelland

61'

A. Oggesen← J. Gallegos

71'

M. Haidara← D. Grétarsson

72'

S. Andreasen← I. Djantou

81'

G. Fraulo← L. Sandgrav

83'

L. Björklund← K. Ingason

88'

Mohamed Haidara

90+5'

Lukas Björklund

90+5'

Frederik Gytkjær

90'

B. Hämäläinen← J. Amon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeLyngby

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots8

6Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots8

4On Target1

11Off Target4

5Blocked3

11Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes336

361Accurate Passes224

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3