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Sonderjyske vs Lyngby — Superliga 2018

Sonderjyske
Sonderjyske
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lyngby
Lyngby
H. Wright 89'
R. Hassan 37'
5/17/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 8Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sonderjyske43%
×Draw24%
Lyngby33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonderjyske
1.66
Lyngby
1.42

Sonderjyske creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sonderjyske
1.60
Lyngby
1.23

allows per match

Sonderjyske
1.60
Lyngby
1.71

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.34scores more
Lyngby-0.60scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Lyngby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw
67%
Sonderjyske or Lyngby
76%
Draw or Lyngby
57%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+
22%
Lyngby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals
81%
Sonderjyske 2+ goals
49%
Sonderjyske 3+ goals
23%
Lyngby 1+ goals
76%
Lyngby 2+ goals
41%
Lyngby 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)
57%
Lyngby (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 16 matches

Lyngby away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.60 + Lyngby defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lyngby attack 1.23 + Sonderjyske defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sonderjyske scores more
43%
level
24%
Lyngby scores more
33%

Sonderjyske at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sonderjyske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Lawrence ThomasSonderjyskeSonderjyske · G
7.9

Match Events

37'
R. Hassan↳ E. Frederiksen
59'
R. Pedersen← E. Kornvig
60'
P. Banggaard
62'
M. Albaek← H. Wright
62'
R. Hassan← J. Eskesen
69'
C. Jakobsen← V. Torp
69'
S. Crone← L. Fosgaard
80'
E. Frederiksen← J. Beck
83'
M. Romer← J. Gammelby
83'
M. Kaastrup← P. Gregor
88'
V. Ekani← B. Finne
88'
A. Jacobsen← P. Schmiedl
89'
H. Wright↳ J. Eskesen

Possession

40%Sonderjyske

Shots

17Sonderjyske

Pass accuracy

49%Sonderjyske

Statistics

SonderjyskeLyngby
Overview
40%Possession60%
17Total Shots17
3Corners7
17Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots17
6On Target6
6Off Target8
5Blocked3
8Inside Box12
9Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
430Total Passes626
352Accurate Passes543
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Superliga: Sonderjyske 2–0 Lyngby

Sonderjyske beat Lyngby 2-0 in Superliga on May 17, 2021.

Goals: R. Hassan (37'), H. Wright (89').

Lyngby controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 17.

The match was played at Sydbank Park in Haderslev.