Sonderjyske 1–1 Aarhus: Result & Stats | Superliga

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aarhus

O. Hyseni 53'

T. Bech 1'

7/20/2025

Superliga · Round 1Haderslev Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sonderjyske33%

×Draw24%

Aarhus43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchAarhus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.64

Sonderjyske

1.39

Aarhus

1.64

Aarhus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.55

creates per match

1.63

1.65

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.55

Aarhus

1.63

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.65

Aarhus

1.23

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.28scores more

Aarhus+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Aarhus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

57%

Sonderjyske or Aarhus

76%

Draw or Aarhus

67%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

15%

Aarhus wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

75%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

40%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

16%

Aarhus 1+ goals

81%

Aarhus 2+ goals

49%

Aarhus 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

43%

Aarhus (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 18 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.55 + Aarhus defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aarhus attack 1.63 + Sonderjyske defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

33%

level

24%

Aarhus scores more

43%

Aarhus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Jensen

Sonderjyske · D

7.6

Match Events

1'

T. Bech↳ F. Emmery

46'

T. Bach← G. Links

53'

O. Hyseni

62'

H. Dalsgaard← J. Jensen-Abbew

62'

K. Arnstad← F. Emmery

66'

Henrik Dalsgaard

71'

Nicolai Poulsen

77'

R. Vinderslev← T. Klysner

77'

M. Hoppe← M. Agger

77'

S. Tchamche← N. Poulsen

80'

L. Bjorklund← O. Hyseni

86'

R. Carstensen← F. Beijmo

90+1'

S. Waever← A. Lyng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeAarhus

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots11

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.58

4Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target3

8Off Target3

1Blocked5

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

354Total Passes452

277Accurate Passes379

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2