Sonderjyske 1–4 Aarhus: Result & Stats | Superliga

Sonderjyske

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Aarhus

I. Djantou 34'

P. Mortensen 51', 45+2', 24'

M. Anderson 26'

2/16/2025

Superliga · Round 18Sydbank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Sonderjyske33%

×Draw24%

Aarhus43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonderjyskeExpected goals in this matchAarhus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.64

Sonderjyske

1.39

Aarhus

1.64

Aarhus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.55

creates per match

1.63

1.65

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sonderjyske

1.55

Aarhus

1.63

allows per match

Sonderjyske

1.65

Aarhus

1.23

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Sonderjyske+0.28scores more

Aarhus+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonderjyske ↓

Aarhus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sonderjyske or draw

57%

Sonderjyske or Aarhus

76%

Draw or Aarhus

67%

Winning margin

Sonderjyske wins by 2+

15%

Aarhus wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sonderjyske 1+ goals

75%

Sonderjyske 2+ goals

40%

Sonderjyske 3+ goals

16%

Aarhus 1+ goals

81%

Aarhus 2+ goals

49%

Aarhus 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sonderjyske (draw refunded)

43%

Aarhus (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonderjyske at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 18 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonderjyske attack 1.55 + Aarhus defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aarhus attack 1.63 + Sonderjyske defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sonderjyske scores more

33%

level

24%

Aarhus scores more

43%

Aarhus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Mortensen

Aarhus · F

9.3

Match Events

8'

Kristian Arnstad

24'

P. Mortensen↳ M. Madsen

26'

M. Anderson↳ Y. Badji

27'

Mikael AndersonGoal confirmed

34'

I. Djantou↳ L. Qamili

36'

Mads Emil Madsen

45+2'

P. Mortensen

46'

N. Poulsen← K. Arnstad

47'

Maxime Soulas

51'

P. Mortensen↳ Y. Badji

66'

Mads Emil Madsen

66'

Mads Emil Madsen

66'

S. Emini← L. Björklund

66'

M. Agger← A. Lyng

71'

M. Power← Y. Badji

74'

M. Hoppe← M. Olsen

79'

F. Brandhof← G. Links

79'

T. Bech← P. Mortensen

82'

T. Klysner← K. Ingason

82'

O. Hyseni← L. Qamili

85'

J. Jensen-Abbew← M. Akoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SonderjyskeAarhus

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots15

1.07Expected Goals (xG)2.89

2Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target9

5Off Target3

4Blocked3

6Inside Box13

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

502Total Passes286

404Accurate Passes197

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2