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Sonacos vs Pikine — Ligue 1 2019

Sonacos
Sonacos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pikine
Pikine
5/3/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sonacos32%
×Draw36%
Pikine32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonacos
0.78
Pikine
0.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sonacos
0.66
Pikine
0.75

allows per match

Sonacos
0.80
Pikine
0.89

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par
Pikine+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

Pikine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw
68%
Sonacos or Pikine
64%
Draw or Pikine
68%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+
10%
Pikine wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals
54%
Sonacos 2+ goals
18%
Sonacos 3+ goals
4%
Pikine 1+ goals
54%
Pikine 2+ goals
18%
Pikine 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)
50%
Pikine (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Pikine away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + Pikine defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Pikine attack 0.75 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Sonacos scores more
32%
level
36%
Pikine scores more
32%

Sonacos at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Sonacos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sonacos 0–0 Pikine

Sonacos and Pikine drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 3, 2026.