Pikine 1–0 Sonacos: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Pikine

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sonacos

2/2/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Pikine41%

×Draw35%

Sonacos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PikineExpected goals in this matchSonacos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.63

Pikine

0.93

Sonacos

0.63

Pikine creates 48% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 56 away

0.89

creates per match

0.63

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Pikine

0.89

Sonacos

0.63

allows per match

Pikine

0.63

Sonacos

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par

Sonacos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

Sonacos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

21%79%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Pikine or draw

76%

Pikine or Sonacos

65%

Draw or Sonacos

59%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+

15%

Sonacos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals

61%

Pikine 2+ goals

24%

Pikine 3+ goals

7%

Sonacos 1+ goals

47%

Sonacos 2+ goals

13%

Sonacos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)

63%

Sonacos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

Sonacos away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + Sonacos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Sonacos attack 0.63 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pikine scores more

41%

level

35%

Sonacos scores more

24%

Pikine at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff