Sonacos 1–0 Jaraaf: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Sonacos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jaraaf

2/9/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Ely Manel Fall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sonacos26%

×Draw36%

Jaraaf38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SonacosExpected goals in this matchJaraaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

0.87

Sonacos

0.67

Jaraaf

0.87

Jaraaf creates 30% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 89 away

0.66

creates per match

0.94

0.80

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sonacos

0.66

Jaraaf

0.94

allows per match

Sonacos

0.80

Jaraaf

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sonacos+0.00on par

Jaraaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonacos ↓

Jaraaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–119%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Sonacos or draw

62%

Sonacos or Jaraaf

64%

Draw or Jaraaf

74%

Winning margin

Sonacos wins by 2+

7%

Jaraaf wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sonacos 1+ goals

49%

Sonacos 2+ goals

15%

Sonacos 3+ goals

3%

Jaraaf 1+ goals

58%

Jaraaf 2+ goals

22%

Jaraaf 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sonacos (draw refunded)

41%

Jaraaf (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonacos at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.80 · 56 matches

Jaraaf away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.67 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonacos attack 0.66 + Jaraaf defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Jaraaf attack 0.94 + Sonacos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sonacos scores more

26%

level

36%

Jaraaf scores more

38%

Jaraaf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff