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Jaraaf vs Sonacos — Ligue 1 2019

Jaraaf
Jaraaf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sonacos
Sonacos
5/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade de Diaraf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Jaraaf42%
×Draw35%
Sonacos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaraaf
0.95
Sonacos
0.60

Jaraaf creates 58% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 56 away

creates per match

Jaraaf
0.95
Sonacos
0.63

allows per match

Jaraaf
0.57
Sonacos
0.96

finishing

Jaraaf+0.00on par
Sonacos+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaraaf ↓

Sonacos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Jaraaf or draw
78%
Jaraaf or Sonacos
65%
Draw or Sonacos
58%

Winning margin

Jaraaf wins by 2+
16%
Sonacos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jaraaf 1+ goals
61%
Jaraaf 2+ goals
25%
Jaraaf 3+ goals
7%
Sonacos 1+ goals
45%
Sonacos 2+ goals
12%
Sonacos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jaraaf (draw refunded)
66%
Sonacos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaraaf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.57 · 88 matches

Sonacos away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaraaf attack 0.95 + Sonacos defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sonacos attack 0.63 + Jaraaf defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jaraaf scores more
42%
level
35%
Sonacos scores more
22%

Jaraaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jaraaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jaraaf vs Sonacos

Jaraaf and Sonacos drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Stade de Diaraf in Dakar.