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Son Veri vs Serverense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Veri
Son Veri
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Serverense
Serverense
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri38%
×Draw24%
Serverense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Veri
1.57
Serverense
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Son Veri
1.00
Serverense
0.75

allows per match

Son Veri
2.40
Serverense
2.15

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par
Serverense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Serverense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw
62%
Son Veri or Serverense
76%
Draw or Serverense
62%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+
19%
Serverense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals
79%
Son Veri 2+ goals
46%
Son Veri 3+ goals
21%
Serverense 1+ goals
79%
Serverense 2+ goals
46%
Serverense 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)
50%
Serverense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Serverense away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Serverense defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Serverense attack 0.75 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Son Veri scores more
38%
level
24%
Serverense scores more
38%

Son Veri at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Son Veri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Son Veri vs Serverense

Son Veri beat Serverense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.