Serverense 5–1 Son Veri: Result & Stats

Serverense

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Son Veri

3/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Estadio Son Servera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Serverense67%

×Draw18%

Son Veri14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ServerenseExpected goals in this matchSon Veri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.98

Serverense

2.33

Son Veri

0.98

Serverense creates 138% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

1.55

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Serverense

1.00

Son Veri

0.40

allows per match

Serverense

1.55

Son Veri

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Serverense+0.00on par

Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Serverense ↓

Son Veri →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Serverense or draw

86%

Serverense or Son Veri

82%

Draw or Son Veri

33%

Winning margin

Serverense wins by 2+

44%

Son Veri wins by 2+

Team goals

Serverense 1+ goals

90%

Serverense 2+ goals

67%

Serverense 3+ goals

41%

Son Veri 1+ goals

62%

Son Veri 2+ goals

26%

Son Veri 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Serverense (draw refunded)

82%

Son Veri (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Serverense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Serverense attack 1.00 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.33

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Serverense defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Serverense scores more

67%

level

18%

Son Veri scores more

14%

Serverense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Serverense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff