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Son Veri vs Murense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Son Veri
Son Veri
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Murense
Murense
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri36%
×Draw24%
Murense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Son Veri
1.45
Murense
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Son Veri
1.00
Murense
0.65

allows per match

Son Veri
2.40
Murense
1.90

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par
Murense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Murense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw
61%
Son Veri or Murense
76%
Draw or Murense
64%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+
17%
Murense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals
77%
Son Veri 2+ goals
42%
Son Veri 3+ goals
18%
Murense 1+ goals
78%
Murense 2+ goals
45%
Murense 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)
48%
Murense (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Murense away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Murense attack 0.65 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Son Veri scores more
36%
level
24%
Murense scores more
39%

Murense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Murense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Son Veri 2–1 Murense

Son Veri beat Murense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.