Murense 1–1 Son Veri: Result & Stats

Murense

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Son Veri

9/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Camp de Fútbol de Muro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Murense62%

×Draw19%

Son Veri18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MurenseExpected goals in this matchSon Veri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.15

Murense

2.27

Son Veri

1.15

Murense creates 97% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

0.90

creates per match

0.40

1.90

allows per match

3.65

creates per match

Murense

0.90

Son Veri

0.40

allows per match

Murense

1.90

Son Veri

3.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Murense+0.00on par

Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murense ↓

Son Veri →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Murense or draw

82%

Murense or Son Veri

81%

Draw or Son Veri

38%

Winning margin

Murense wins by 2+

40%

Son Veri wins by 2+

Team goals

Murense 1+ goals

90%

Murense 2+ goals

66%

Murense 3+ goals

39%

Son Veri 1+ goals

68%

Son Veri 2+ goals

32%

Son Veri 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Murense (draw refunded)

77%

Son Veri (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Murense at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Murense attack 0.90 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.27

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Murense scores more

62%

level

19%

Son Veri scores more

18%

Murense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Murense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff