Son Veri 4–3 Inter Ibiza: Result & Stats

Son Veri

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Inter Ibiza

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Son Veri31%

×Draw24%

Inter Ibiza45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Son VeriExpected goals in this matchInter Ibiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.66

Son Veri

1.35

Inter Ibiza

1.66

Inter Ibiza creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

2.40

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Son Veri

1.00

Inter Ibiza

0.92

allows per match

Son Veri

2.40

Inter Ibiza

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Son Veri+0.00on par

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Son Veri ↓

Inter Ibiza →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Son Veri or draw

55%

Son Veri or Inter Ibiza

76%

Draw or Inter Ibiza

69%

Winning margin

Son Veri wins by 2+

14%

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Son Veri 1+ goals

74%

Son Veri 2+ goals

39%

Son Veri 3+ goals

15%

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals

81%

Inter Ibiza 2+ goals

49%

Inter Ibiza 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Son Veri (draw refunded)

41%

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Son Veri at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Inter Ibiza away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Son Veri attack 1.00 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Inter Ibiza attack 0.92 + Son Veri defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Son Veri scores more

31%

level

24%

Inter Ibiza scores more

45%

Inter Ibiza at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff