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Inter Ibiza vs Son Veri — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Son Veri
Son Veri
3/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio Can Canto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Inter Ibiza76%
×Draw15%
Son Veri9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Ibiza
2.62
Son Veri
0.77

Inter Ibiza creates 240% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Inter Ibiza
1.59
Son Veri
0.40

allows per match

Inter Ibiza
1.14
Son Veri
3.65

finishing

Inter Ibiza+0.00on par
Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Ibiza ↓

Son Veri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Inter Ibiza or draw
91%
Inter Ibiza or Son Veri
85%
Draw or Son Veri
24%

Winning margin

Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
55%
Son Veri wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
93%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
73%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
48%
Son Veri 1+ goals
54%
Son Veri 2+ goals
18%
Son Veri 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
90%
Son Veri (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Ibiza at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Ibiza attack 1.59 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.62

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Inter Ibiza scores more
76%
level
15%
Son Veri scores more
9%

Inter Ibiza at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Inter Ibiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Inter Ibiza 5–0 Son Veri

Inter Ibiza beat Son Veri 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Can Canto in Ibiza.