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Solomon Islands W vs Papua New Guinea W — Friendlies Women 2026

Solomon Islands W
Solomon Islands W
FT
5 – 0
Papua New Guinea W
Papua New Guinea W
7/9/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Uprising Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Solomon Islands W62%
×Draw17%
Papua New Guinea W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solomon Islands W
2.80
Papua New Guinea W
1.61

Solomon Islands W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Solomon Islands W
1.60
Papua New Guinea W
1.83

allows per match

Solomon Islands W
1.40
Papua New Guinea W
4.00

finishing

Solomon Islands W+0.00on par
Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solomon Islands W ↓

Papua New Guinea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Solomon Islands W or draw
79%
Solomon Islands W or Papua New Guinea W
83%
Draw or Papua New Guinea W
38%

Winning margin

Solomon Islands W wins by 2+
42%
Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Solomon Islands W 1+ goals
94%
Solomon Islands W 2+ goals
76%
Solomon Islands W 3+ goals
52%
Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals
80%
Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals
48%
Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Solomon Islands W (draw refunded)
75%
Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solomon Islands W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Papua New Guinea W away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solomon Islands W attack 1.60 + Papua New Guinea W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Papua New Guinea W attack 1.83 + Solomon Islands W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Solomon Islands W scores more
62%
level
17%
Papua New Guinea W scores more
21%

Solomon Islands W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Solomon Islands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solomon Islands W vs Papua New Guinea W

Solomon Islands W beat Papua New Guinea W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Uprising Sports Center in Pacific Harbour.