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Papua New Guinea W vs Solomon Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Papua New Guinea W
Papua New Guinea W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Solomon Islands W
Solomon Islands W
K. Kalapai 83'
N. Elipas 67'
R. Padio 52', 40'
S. Waida 20'
11/20/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Papua New Guinea W93%
×Draw5%
Solomon Islands W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Papua New Guinea W
4.63
Solomon Islands W
0.75

Papua New Guinea W creates 517% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Papua New Guinea W
3.00
Solomon Islands W
0.50

allows per match

Papua New Guinea W
1.00
Solomon Islands W
6.25

finishing

Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par
Solomon Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Papua New Guinea W ↓

Solomon Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Papua New Guinea W or draw
98%
Papua New Guinea W or Solomon Islands W
95%
Draw or Solomon Islands W
7%

Winning margin

Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+
82%
Solomon Islands W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals
99%
Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals
93%
Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals
80%
Solomon Islands W 1+ goals
53%
Solomon Islands W 2+ goals
17%
Solomon Islands W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)
98%
Solomon Islands W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Papua New Guinea W at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Solomon Islands W away — creates 0.50, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Papua New Guinea W attack 3.00 + Solomon Islands W defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.63

Solomon Islands W attack 0.50 + Papua New Guinea W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Papua New Guinea W scores more
93%
level
5%
Solomon Islands W scores more
2%

Papua New Guinea W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Papua New Guinea W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
S. Waida
40'
R. Padio
52'
R. Padio
67'
N. Elipas
83'
K. Kalapai

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Papua New Guinea W vs Solomon Islands W

Papua New Guinea W beat Solomon Islands W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on November 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Waida (20'), R. Padio (40', 52'), N. Elipas (67'), K. Kalapai (83').