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Sollentuna vs Enköping — Ettan - Norra 2019

Sollentuna
Sollentuna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Enköping
Enköping
8/2/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 16Sollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sollentuna44%
×Draw24%
Enköping32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sollentuna
1.66
Enköping
1.38

Sollentuna creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sollentuna
1.70
Enköping
1.38

allows per match

Sollentuna
1.39
Enköping
1.62

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par
Enköping+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Enköping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw
68%
Sollentuna or Enköping
76%
Draw or Enköping
56%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+
23%
Enköping wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals
81%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
49%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
23%
Enköping 1+ goals
75%
Enköping 2+ goals
40%
Enköping 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)
58%
Enköping (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 112 matches

Enköping away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 1.70 + Enköping defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Enköping attack 1.38 + Sollentuna defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sollentuna scores more
44%
level
24%
Enköping scores more
32%

Sollentuna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sollentuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sollentuna vs Enköping

Sollentuna and Enköping drew 0-0 in Ettan - Norra on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Sollentunavallen in Sollentuna.