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Enköping vs Sollentuna — Svenska Cupen 2019

Enköping
Enköping
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Sollentuna
Sollentuna
6/15/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundEnavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Enköping18%
×Draw17%
Sollentuna65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Enköping
1.52
Sollentuna
2.91

Sollentuna creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Enköping
1.60
Sollentuna
3.22

allows per match

Enköping
2.60
Sollentuna
1.44

finishing

Enköping+0.00on par
Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enköping ↓

Sollentuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Enköping or draw
35%
Enköping or Sollentuna
83%
Draw or Sollentuna
82%

Winning margin

Enköping wins by 2+
8%
Sollentuna wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Enköping 1+ goals
78%
Enköping 2+ goals
45%
Enköping 3+ goals
20%
Sollentuna 1+ goals
94%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
78%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Enköping (draw refunded)
22%
Sollentuna (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enköping at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enköping attack 1.60 + Sollentuna defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sollentuna attack 3.22 + Enköping defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Enköping scores more
18%
level
17%
Sollentuna scores more
65%

Sollentuna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sollentuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Enköping vs Sollentuna

Sollentuna beat Enköping 5-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Enavallen in Enköping.