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Solin vs Orijent 1919 — First NL 2018

Solin
Solin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
5/1/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 28Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Solin43%
×Draw26%
Orijent 191931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solin
1.48
Orijent 1919
1.22

Solin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 109 away

creates per match

Solin
1.41
Orijent 1919
1.32

allows per match

Solin
1.11
Orijent 1919
1.54

finishing

Solin+0.00on par
Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

Orijent 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Solin or draw
69%
Solin or Orijent 1919
74%
Draw or Orijent 1919
57%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+
21%
Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals
77%
Solin 2+ goals
43%
Solin 3+ goals
19%
Orijent 1919 1+ goals
70%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
34%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)
58%
Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Solin scores more
43%
level
26%
Orijent 1919 scores more
31%

Solin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Solin 3–3 Orijent 1919

Solin and Orijent 1919 drew 3-3 in First NL on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.