Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orijent 1919 vs Solin — First NL 2018

Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Solin
Solin
5/18/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 31Stadion Krimeja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Orijent 191950%
×Draw25%
Solin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orijent 1919
1.60
Solin
1.06

Orijent 1919 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 88 away

creates per match

Orijent 1919
1.36
Solin
1.01

allows per match

Orijent 1919
1.11
Solin
1.85

finishing

Orijent 1919+0.00on par
Solin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orijent 1919 ↓

Solin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orijent 1919 or draw
75%
Orijent 1919 or Solin
75%
Draw or Solin
50%

Winning margin

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
26%
Solin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orijent 1919 1+ goals
80%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
47%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
22%
Solin 1+ goals
65%
Solin 2+ goals
29%
Solin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
66%
Solin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches

Solin away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Solin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Solin attack 1.01 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orijent 1919 scores more
50%
level
25%
Solin scores more
25%

Orijent 1919 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orijent 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orijent 1919 vs Solin

Orijent 1919 and Solin drew 2-2 in First NL on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Krimeja in Rijeka.