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Solin vs HNK Cibalia — First NL 2018

Solin
Solin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
11/25/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 16Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Solin46%
×Draw26%
HNK Cibalia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Solin
1.46
HNK Cibalia
1.08

Solin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 107 away

creates per match

Solin
1.41
HNK Cibalia
1.04

allows per match

Solin
1.11
HNK Cibalia
1.52

finishing

Solin+0.00on par
HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solin ↓

HNK Cibalia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Solin or draw
72%
Solin or HNK Cibalia
74%
Draw or HNK Cibalia
54%

Winning margin

Solin wins by 2+
22%
HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Solin 1+ goals
77%
Solin 2+ goals
43%
Solin 3+ goals
18%
HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
66%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
29%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Solin (draw refunded)
62%
HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solin at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solin attack 1.41 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + Solin defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Solin scores more
46%
level
26%
HNK Cibalia scores more
28%

Solin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Solin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Solin vs HNK Cibalia

HNK Cibalia beat Solin 3-0 in First NL on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.