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HNK Cibalia vs Solin — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Solin
Solin
9/10/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 5Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

HNK Cibalia53%
×Draw24%
Solin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.71
Solin
1.02

HNK Cibalia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 88 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
Solin
1.01

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
Solin
1.85

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
Solin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Solin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
77%
HNK Cibalia or Solin
76%
Draw or Solin
47%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
29%
Solin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
82%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
51%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
24%
Solin 1+ goals
64%
Solin 2+ goals
27%
Solin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
70%
Solin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Solin away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Solin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Solin attack 1.01 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
53%
level
24%
Solin scores more
23%

HNK Cibalia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: HNK Cibalia 3–1 Solin

HNK Cibalia beat Solin 3-1 in First NL on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Cibalia in Vinkovci.