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Soleil vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

Soleil
Soleil
FT
2 – 1
ASPAC
ASPAC
2/25/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Soleil31%
×Draw30%
ASPAC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soleil
0.97
ASPAC
1.13

ASPAC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 114 away

creates per match

Soleil
1.11
ASPAC
0.87

allows per match

Soleil
1.39
ASPAC
0.83

finishing

Soleil+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soleil ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Soleil or draw
61%
Soleil or ASPAC
70%
Draw or ASPAC
69%

Winning margin

Soleil wins by 2+
11%
ASPAC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Soleil 1+ goals
62%
Soleil 2+ goals
25%
Soleil 3+ goals
7%
ASPAC 1+ goals
68%
ASPAC 2+ goals
31%
ASPAC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Soleil (draw refunded)
44%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soleil at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 62 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.83 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soleil attack 1.11 + ASPAC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

ASPAC attack 0.87 + Soleil defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Soleil scores more
31%
level
30%
ASPAC scores more
39%

ASPAC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Soleil 2–1 ASPAC

Soleil beat ASPAC 2-1 in Championnat National on February 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.